LENSENTIAL CONSULT

Is it a good business?

Lensential Consult is the strategy system our analysts run for companies and their investors: 21 specialist AI agents, and an orchestrator that runs them in five phases, from framing the question to the decision memo. It asks whether a business, a product line or a plan is worth backing, fixing or building. You bring the decision. We run the study, deliver it and present it.

ENGAGEMENT FILE · KELLMERE INSTRUMENTS · FIELD METERSSPECIMEN

Route: Full strategy, six weeks

  1. ✓○1 · FrameProblem framing, situation assessment, assumption auditContribution margin 11.0% to 3.0% since FY2023
  2. ✓○2 · DiagnoseCustomer segmentation, competitive landscape, profit pool analysisContractors: 62% of units, a $4.8M loss
  3. ✓○3 · Design
    1. ✓○UnitsPortfolio reviewField Meters: fix by September 30, 2027, or exit
    2. ✓○PricePricing strategyPocket price $547 against a $780 list
    3. ✓○OptionsStrategic options
    4. ✓○ValueBusiness case
  4. ✓○4 · PlanInitiative prioritization, risk register
  5. ✓○5 · LandKPI architecture, storyline and deck, decision memo
  6. SkippedMarket map and organizational forensics: one company, in a market sized in last year's plan. Operating model, transformation roadmap, war-gaming and stakeholder alignment: after the board decides.

The engagement file is updated after every agent. Later work resumes from it.

  • 21strategy agents, and an orchestrator
  • 5phases, from framing the question to the decision
  • 7standard study routes
  • 3types for every assumption: fact, estimate, leap of faith

Release 0.3.23, October 2026. Every example on this page follows one fictional company, Kellmere Instruments, deciding what to do with one product line.

ONE QUESTION, CARRIED TO THE ASK

Every finding is carried to the decision it changes.

  • 11.0%to3.0%Field Meters' contribution margin, FY2023 to FY2026. Price explains $6.2M of the $11.2M fall; volume, unit cost and direct costs explain the rest.
  • 62%of the units, and a $4.8M lossContractors bought 62% of the meters in FY2026 and lost $4.8M after direct costs. Utilities bought 38% and earned $8.6M, plus $6.1M of calibration.
  • $84Magainst $78M to $89MOption B, utilities by subscription, valued against a sale today. The recommendation keeps the sale open and names the test that decides between them.
See the options, page by page

From the Kellmere Instruments specimen. Kellmere is a fictional company.

WHERE IT FITS

The other half of an investment case.

Venture investors

The market half of a thesis: how big the market is, where the profit sits, and who competes. Lensential Venture checks the company; Lensential Consult sizes the world it sells into.

Private equity

For operating partners and portfolio companies: where the business stands, how it should price, who decides what, and the roadmap and measures that follow.

CFO and product offices

Which product lines to grow, fix, sell or exit, how to price them, and the real options with the business case for each.

Investors and boards

When a portfolio company is off plan, a turnaround study uses Lensential Consult, Lensential Venture and Lensential PE.

THE DELIVERABLES

Five questions, in the order a study travels.

Pick a question. Each opens what the agents deliver, what you send and what you get, and the agents that do the work.

FRAME

DIAGNOSE

DESIGN

PLAN

LAND

What exactly are we deciding, and what is true today?

Problem framing · Situation assessment · Assumption audit

Problem framing turns a concern into one question with a date, an owner and hypotheses that can be proved wrong. The situation assessment splits performance into volume, price and mix, and prices the momentum case: where the business ends up if nothing changes. The assumption audit types every belief a plan rests on.

SPECIMEN

PROBLEM FRAMING · ONE PAGESPECIMEN

Field Meters: grow, fix, sell or exit?

THE QUESTION

How should Kellmere restore Field Meters to a 10% contribution margin by FY2030, or sell it for more than it is worth to us, decided by the board on March 18, 2027, within the FY2027 capital budget?

SCOPE

InField Meters, its two channels, and the calibration contracts on its meters

OutProcess Analyzers, Lab Systems, and a sale of the company

THE ISSUE TREE

Field Meters' value is what it earns, price times volume less cost, and what it is worth to an owner.

  1. 1
    Price · On-invoice discounts; rebates, freight and payment terms
  2. 2
    Volume · By segment, utilities and contractors; by channel, direct and distributors
  3. 3
    Cost · Unit cost; the number of models; direct operating costs
  4. 4
    Ownership · What the line is worth to us and to a buyer; the calibration that comes with the meter

THE HYPOTHESES TO TEST FIRST

HypothesisWe would be wrong if
H1. Discounting, not volume, explains most of the fall.Volume and cost together explain more than half of the fall in contribution.
H2. The contractor channel loses money after its direct costs.Contractor contribution is positive at FY2026 pocket prices.
H3. The meter brings in the calibration contract.Fewer than 25% of calibration contracts are on a Kellmere meter.

Every hypothesis states the evidence that would prove it wrong. All three held: price explains $6.2M of the $11.2M fall, contractors lost $4.8M, and 41% of calibration contracts are on a Kellmere meter.

FRAMEWhat exactly are we deciding, and what is true today?
DIAGNOSEWhere is the money, and who competes for it?
DESIGNWhat are the real options, and what is each worth?
PLANWhat do we fund, in what order, and what could go wrong?
LANDHow do we measure it, and how do we get the yes?

HOW WE DELIVER

Finished files, signed by a principal and presented by the analyst who ran them.

Signed by a principal.

Every deliverable is read, challenged and signed by a principal before it reaches you. Delivery times include that review. A paper you take to your own board goes out under your name.

Formats follow the reader.

Papers come as PDF. Models, scores and registers come as live Excel, so your finance team can rerun them. The storyline comes as PowerPoint and the decision memo as Word, because your team edits both before they go out.

The route is confirmed first.

You see which agents will run, which are skipped and why, before the heavy work starts.

A gate after every phase.

You see what was learned and how the working answer changed, and you can stop there.

One folder per engagement.

It holds the deliverables, the working notes, the files each deliverable is built from, and the engagement file, so any deliverable can be rebuilt and reissued.

Presented to your leadership.

An analyst walks your executive team or your board through the findings, on a call or in the room.

Start with what you have.

A question and last year's numbers are enough to frame a study. Product-line P&Ls are enough for a portfolio review.

How you pay.

A fixed fee per study, or a retainer for an agreed number of studies where the work repeats. Fees are agreed before work begins and do not depend on what we find.

ONE STANDARD

Six rules every agent follows.

These rules let a recommendation hold up for a reader who backed the rejected option.

  1. 1

    Answer first.

    A working answer exists from the first phase, with its confidence stated, and every phase improves it.

  2. 2

    Facts carry sources. Estimates carry labels.

    A belief everyone repeats and nobody has checked is tested or flagged, never used as a fact.

  3. 3

    The do-nothing option is always priced.

    Option 0 is the momentum case on its real trajectory, never weakened on purpose.

  4. 4

    Every recommendation names its kill condition.

    The number and the date that would reverse it, written before anyone approves it.

  5. 5

    Every deliverable ends with a written quality bar.

    You can check the work yourself, against the bar.

  6. 6

    An unwelcome answer comes early.

    If the answer is unwelcome, we say so at the first phase gate, not on the last page.

FACT

Verified with evidence, and the evidence is cited.

ESTIMATE

Reasoned but not yet verified, with its basis stated.

LEAP OF FAITH

The plan rests on it, and nothing supports it yet. It gets a test and a kill criterion.

Market and industry figures also carry a confidence label, HIGH, MEDIUM or LOW, and every LOW comes with a plan to firm it up.

The labels, in practice.

ASSUMPTION AUDIT · OPTION B · FIELD METERSSPECIMEN

Four beliefs, typed and tested

#AssumptionTypeIf wrongLikely wrongTestKill criterion
1Utilities pay for meters as an annual subscription.LEAP OF FAITH54A pilot with 40 utilities, $1.6M, by September 30, 2027Fewer than 10 sign the subscription
2Utilities keep renewing calibration above 80% a year.FACTRenewal ledger: 86%, FY2024 to FY202641None neededNone
3The plant runs at about half of today's meter volume without unit cost rising more than 10% above its current trend.ESTIMATEThe plant controller's capacity model43A four-week line study by the plant controllerUnit cost more than 10% above trend: re-scope the run-down
4The six distributors accept a wind-down that runs through FY2030.ESTIMATESurfaced by the premortem33Counsel reads the six distributor agreementsTermination costs above $3.0M: slow the run-down

Proceed with tests. The first belief decides the option, and its test costs 8% of the $20.0M it protects.

"If wrong" and "Likely wrong" are scored 1 to 5.

FROM THE QUALITY BARS

  • An issue tree has no overlaps and no gaps.
  • At least 20% of an initiative list is stopped or deferred.
  • At least one unit is classified fix or exit.
  • Two sizing methods, reconciled when more than 30% apart.
  • A year-one benefits ramp above 60% needs an explicit defense.

SEVEN ROUTES

Say what you need. The orchestrator proposes the route.

Say "take this from the question to the board", and the orchestrator proposes one of seven standard routes and checks with you after each phase. Each delivery includes the principal's review.

The situationThe routeWhat runsDelivery
"What should we do about this?"Full strategyAll five phases, with portfolio review and pricing where they matter, and the deck for the board.Six weeks
Growth, or a new marketGrowth or market entryProblem framing; market map, customer segmentation and competitive landscape; strategic options and a business case; a war-game and a risk register; then the ask.Four weeks
Margins are fallingProfitability turnaroundProblem framing; a deep situation assessment and profit pools; pricing and initiative prioritization; a transformation roadmap and KPI architecture; then the ask.Four weeks
Real money behind one decisionInvestment, build or buyProblem framing, an assumption audit, a business case and a war-game, then a decision memo.Ten business days
Nobody can say who decidesReorganizationProblem framing, a situation assessment and an operating model, then a transformation roadmap and stakeholder alignment.Three weeks
A group of related organizationsGroup or entity structureProblem framing and organizational forensics, then a competitive landscape or an operating model, a risk register and a decision memo.Scoped first, by the countries and the depth
One sharp questionSingle questionStraight to the one agent that answers it.Three business days

Every route except a single question and a reorganization ends in an ask: a decision memo or a storyline.

STRATEGIC OPTIONS, PAGE BY PAGE

Five one-page options and a recommendation that can be disproved.

The options paper for Kellmere's Field Meters. Each option differs in where it plays or how it wins, the do-nothing option is priced, and the recommendation names the number and the date that would reverse it.

STRATEGIC OPTIONS · PAGE 1 OF 9SPECIMEN

Five options for Field Meters

0 · Momentum$10M

Run the current course.

Loses money from FY2028.

A · Fix in place$66M

Tighten discounts and cut the models from 140 to 60; keep both channels.

Must be true: contractors accept a 5% higher pocket price.

B · Utilities, as a subscription$84M

Sell meters with calibration as one annual subscription; run down the contractor channel.

Must be true: utilities pay for meters by subscription.

C · Sell the line$78M to $89M

Sell Field Meters to a strategic buyer at 0.55 to 0.65 times revenue, keeping its calibration contracts for about three years.

One step, and it cannot be undone.

D · Harvest$12M

Stop development and run the line for cash.

Loses money from FY2029.

NPV at 9%, FY2027 to FY2031, plus four times FY2031 contribution, calibration included, as a terminal value, never below zero. Option C has none, because the line is sold.

STRATEGIC OPTIONS · PAGE 4 OF 9 · OPTION BSPECIMEN

Utilities, as a subscription

THE THESIS

Utilities buy a meter and its calibration together, because their safety programs require documented calibration. Sold as one annual subscription, the meter is priced on the value of a compliant fleet, not against contractor discounts.

YEAR ONE

  • A pilot with 40 utility accounts in two regions, April to September 2027.
  • Calibration scheduling in the customer portal.
  • A run-down plan with the six distributors, ready to start in the fourth quarter.

INVESTMENT

$20.0M over two years: $8.0M to leave the contractor channel, $7.0M for subscription billing and calibration scheduling, $5.0M for the utility sales and service team.

ECONOMICS

LineFY2026FY2030FY2031
Revenue$126M$80M$77M
Contribution margin3.0%12%15%
Calibration contribution$6.1M$7.1M$7.5M

WHAT MUST BE TRUE

  • Utilities pay for meters as an annual subscription.LEAP OF FAITH
  • Utilities keep renewing calibration above 80% a year.FACT
  • The plant runs at about half of today's meter volume without unit cost rising more than 10% above its current trend.ESTIMATE
  • The six distributors accept a wind-down that runs through FY2030.ESTIMATE

Handed to the assumption audit, which tests the first belief first.

STRATEGIC OPTIONS · PAGE 7 OF 9 · THE SCORECARDSPECIMEN

Scored 1 to 5, with no total

Criterion0ABCD
Value created13441
Investment and time to impact54245
Risk13233
Strategic fit23522
Reversibility45312

5 is best on every row.

WHERE B AND C PART

  • ValueAbout equal today: $84M against $78M to $89M.
  • InvestmentB needs $20.0M over two years; C needs $4.0M to separate the line.
  • RiskB rests on one leap of faith; C rests on a price estimated from three precedent deals.
  • FitB moves Kellmere toward the calibration pool; C gives up the meter that brings calibration in.
  • ReversibilityB can still become C. C cannot become anything else.

No weighted total. The choice between B and C is a trade-off the board should see.

STRATEGIC OPTIONS · PAGE 8 OF 9 · THE RECOMMENDATIONSPECIMEN

B, staged, with C kept ready

RECOMMENDED

Option B, in two steps: the pilot now, the full move only after the gate.

RUNNER-UP

Option C, sell the line.

WHY B OVER C

They are worth about the same today. B keeps the sale open; a sale closes every other option.

WHY NOT A

A is worth $18M less, its margin falls back to 3% by FY2031, and its two moves are already in B's first 90 days.

KILL CONDITION

Fewer than 10 of the 40 pilot utilities sign the subscription by September 30, 2027. Then we sell, at a price likely about $5M below today's estimate. That, with the $1.6M pilot, is what the test costs.

FIRST 90 DAYS

  1. The discount approval rules go live in both channels on April 1, 2027.
  2. The model list is cut to 60, with a last-order date for the 80 retired.
  3. 40 utilities in two regions join the pilot.
  4. A buyer list is kept current, and no sale process starts.

1 of 4

Pages 1, 4, 7 and 8 of nine. Pages 2, 3, 5 and 6 hold options 0, A, C and D. Page 9 lists the candidates searched and set aside: a web store for contractors, licensing the meter design, and merging Field Meters into Process Analyzers. Kellmere Instruments is a fictional company.

WHAT IT DOES NOT DO

Our limits.

  • We do not make the decision. A recommendation is our judgment on the evidence, with its kill condition; the decision is yours.
  • We give no legal, tax, accounting or investment advice. Organizational forensics reads registries and filings; what a structure means in law is for your counsel.
  • Market and industry figures from public sources are estimates and carry a confidence label. Licensed market data enters a study only when you provide it.
  • We do not implement the plan. Building the reporting or the tools a study calls for is a separate build, and Build with us does it.
  • We do not promise an outcome. Every business case shows a conservative scenario, and every recommendation names the condition under which it fails.

THE ORCHESTRATOR

Five phases, in a fixed order. A study may skip any but the last.

The orchestrator proposes one of seven routes and confirms it with you before the heavy work starts. It keeps one engagement file across sessions, holds a working answer from the first phase, and stops at a gate after each phase to confirm the route or change it.

Strategic optionsPricing strategyBusiness casePortfolio review

A diagnosis that breaks the premise sends the study back to Frame, not on to Design.

Analysis alone does not finish a study. Most end in an ask: a decision memo or a storyline.

ALL 21 AGENTS

The agents behind the deliverables.

PhaseAgentWhat it does
FrameProblem framingTurns a concern into one question a decision-maker can answer, with its scope, an issue tree and hypotheses that say what would prove them wrong.
FrameSituation assessmentSplits performance into volume, price and mix, benchmarks it against peers, and prices the momentum case.
FrameAssumption auditTypes every claim a plan needs as fact, estimate or leap of faith, and gives the dangerous ones a test and a kill criterion.
DiagnoseMarket mappingSizes the market top-down and bottom-up, reconciles the two into a range, and shows where in the market the growth sits.
DiagnoseCompetitive intelligenceProfiles the rivals that matter from public evidence and reads each one's likely next move from its real constraints.
DiagnoseCustomer segmentationBuilds segments with their own economics, tests that each is real and reachable, and names the customers to serve less.

The orchestrator runs them in order and keeps the engagement file.

Bring us the decision you have to make.

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