What exactly are we deciding, and what is true today?
Problem framing · Situation assessment · Assumption audit
Problem framing turns a concern into one question with a date, an owner and hypotheses that can be proved wrong. The situation assessment splits performance into volume, price and mix, and prices the momentum case: where the business ends up if nothing changes. The assumption audit types every belief a plan rests on.
SPECIMEN
Field Meters: grow, fix, sell or exit?
THE QUESTION
How should Kellmere restore Field Meters to a 10% contribution margin by FY2030, or sell it for more than it is worth to us, decided by the board on March 18, 2027, within the FY2027 capital budget?
SCOPE
InField Meters, its two channels, and the calibration contracts on its meters
OutProcess Analyzers, Lab Systems, and a sale of the company
THE ISSUE TREE
Field Meters' value is what it earns, price times volume less cost, and what it is worth to an owner.
- 1Price · On-invoice discounts; rebates, freight and payment terms
- 2Volume · By segment, utilities and contractors; by channel, direct and distributors
- 3Cost · Unit cost; the number of models; direct operating costs
- 4Ownership · What the line is worth to us and to a buyer; the calibration that comes with the meter
THE HYPOTHESES TO TEST FIRST
| Hypothesis | We would be wrong if |
|---|---|
| H1. Discounting, not volume, explains most of the fall. | Volume and cost together explain more than half of the fall in contribution. |
| H2. The contractor channel loses money after its direct costs. | Contractor contribution is positive at FY2026 pocket prices. |
| H3. The meter brings in the calibration contract. | Fewer than 25% of calibration contracts are on a Kellmere meter. |
Every hypothesis states the evidence that would prove it wrong. All three held: price explains $6.2M of the $11.2M fall, contractors lost $4.8M, and 41% of calibration contracts are on a Kellmere meter.
YOU SEND, YOU GET
Problem framing
YOU SEND
The concern in your own words, who owns the decision and by when, the constraints, and how success will be judged.
YOU GET
One page: the question, the scope in and out, the issue tree, the hypotheses with what would disprove each, and the analysis plan.
Situation assessment
YOU SEND
Three years of financials and KPIs for the unit in scope, customer data, earlier reports, and a peer set if you have one.
YOU GET
A headline, three to five findings with a number and a source in each, the momentum case, and the open questions with how to close them.
Assumption audit
YOU SEND
The plan, model or recommendation to audit, what has already been proved, and the size of the commitment at stake.
YOU GET
Every assumption typed as fact, estimate or leap of faith and scored, with a test and a kill criterion for each dangerous one, a premortem and a verdict.
DELIVERY
Within three business days for a single question. Inside a study, on the timetable in the Seven routes section below.
WHAT RUNS
Every hypothesis states the evidence that would prove it wrong.